Star 2025-04-10

International markets are in turmoil as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs – which have been revised upwards for many countries – came into effect at midnight with a negative spillover effect anticipated for South Africa as the rand flirts with historic lows. Old Mutual Group chief economist, Johann Els, has also downgraded his South African growth forecast marginally, down from 2.2% to 1.7% in response to expected softness in US-linked exports but does not foresee a local recession. The South African Reserve Bank’s most recent estimate was 1.9% for 2025. “China and the Euro Area, South Africa’s primary trading partners, are expected to adopt accommodative policy stances, which should help offset lost momentum,” said Els. Yet, as Donald MacKay, founder and CE of XA Global Trade Advisors, told IOL from…

Maritime industry stakeholders celebrated the significant progress made by Transnet in eliminating the backlog of vessels at anchorage in Durban, dropping the number from 20 to zero in 2024. This achievement comes as a relief to shipping lines, importers, and exporters who have faced costly delays in trade due to port congestion Managing Executive at the Durban Terminals, Earle Peters, made the announcement during Transnet Port Terminals (TPT) celebration of 200 000 TEUs at Durban Multipurpose Terminal (MPT) on Tuesday. Peters said that this performance was testament to increased trade, an improving economy, and the terminal’s growing capabilities, supported by a dedicated workforce ensuring reliable cargo handling. “Over the last five years, the terminal had taken delivery of four reach stackers. The Durban MPT was instrumental in the execution of…

Trump last night gave all countries a 10% baseline except China, which will see even higher levies at 125% The rand recovered instantanously on Wednesday night after suffering a near record low earlier in the day after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his sweeping tariffs, whic hammered global markets and raised the odds of recession. Trump on Wednesday gave all countries a 10% baseline except China, which will see even higher levies at 125%, saying that more than 75 countries had asked for negotiations over the hefty tariffs. "Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately" Trumo said on Truth Social.…

South Africa's financial services led the JSE lower on Wednesday as the local bourse tracked large declines in stock markets all over the world, with investors fearing a global recession arising from the brewing US and China trade war. The global meltdown on stock exchanges due to the imposition of import tariffs by US President Donald Trump on the US's trade partners and counter duties by China saw the JSE All Share Index lower by 2.07% to 82 486 points just after 5pm, and 8.05% down over the last four weeks. Similarly the London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100 Index had fallen 3.25%, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index of leading blue-chip companies in Europe had fallen 3.48%, while the Nikkei had ended 3.9% lower in Japan. On the JSE, the declines…

The imposition of a 30% reciprocal tariff on South African agricultural exports by the US represents a turning point in bilateral trade relations. This protectionist measure, seemingly implemented in response to South Africa's trade barriers, threatens to undermine decades of carefully cultivated economic cooperation while exposing the vulnerabilities of the export-dependent agricultural sector. The timing could hardly be worse for South African producers, as many are still recovering from pandemic-related disruptions and facing increasingly challenging global market conditions. In 2024, South African total agricultural exports recorded about $13.7 billion (R253.5bn); the US absorbed about 4% of this total. Over the years, several high-value agricultural subsectors have relied on African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) to capitalise on the US market through its duty-free access provision for a wide range of…

These are tumultuous times. Global geopolitics has sharply turned towards isolationism, protectionism, and transactional diplomacy. Under the Trump administration's revived leadership in the US, the world is witnessing the resurgence of trade wars and punitive tariffs. South Africa is finding itself increasingly at the crossroads of this geopolitical chessboard, especially as it pushes ahead with long-overdue reforms in land redistribution and agricultural transformation. The renewed economic nationalism from Washington is unsettling. For South Africa - a key player on the African continent and a country with a complex yet critical trade relationship with the US - this shift has immediate and far-reaching consequences. Agriculture, in particular, stands vulnerable. The sector, which had begun to reap modest but important benefits from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), now faces the…