Botswana’s long-standing growth model, anchored in diamond revenues and strong public institutions, is facing mounting strain, with deep-seated structural bottlenecks threatening the country’s medium-term growth prospects and efforts to diversify the economy, according to a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis.
In its recent Selected Issues Paper, "Addressing Growth Bottlenecks in Botswana", the IMF warned that while Botswana achieved exceptional economic and social progress after independence, economic momentum has weakened markedly over the past two decades.
Growth has slowed, unemployment, particularly among the youth, has risen to persistently high levels, and fiscal and external buffers have eroded.
The IMF said the situation has been exacerbated by a sharper-than-expected and likely prolonged decline in global diamond demand, which triggered a severe economic contraction in 2024.
With fiscal space now constrained and…