Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is expected to deliver a cautiously optimistic Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday, showing stronger revenue collection, contained expenditure growth, and a smaller-than-expected deficit, even as sluggish growth and high debt remain major fiscal challenges.
According to Nedbank’s economist, Isaac Matshego, the budget deficit is projected to narrow to 4.4% of GDP in FY2025/26, down from the 4.8% estimated in Budget 2025, thanks to higher-than-anticipated tax revenues and disciplined spending.
“Revenue growth has been boosted by robust collections in personal, corporate, and value-added taxes,” Matshego said last week, noting that gross tax revenue could overshoot earlier estimates by R60 billion in FY2025/26 and as much as R200bn over the medium term.
Available government finance figures for the fiscal year to date show a modest improvement…