Star 2025-10-15

Ratings agencies Moody’s and GCR Ratings say a positive trend is emerging in South Africa’s economic growth trajectory, with both agencies maintaining a stable outlook as reforms begin to show progress and fiscal discipline continues to hold. At a joint media briefing on Tuesday, Evan Wohlmann, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s, said the agency expects real GDP growth to improve to around 1.6% in 2026, supported by gradual structural reforms — particularly in the logistics sector. “There has been some notable structural reform progress. Our baseline expects reform progress particularly on logistics to continue, but the extent of private investment in new logistics infrastructure is unlikely to be sufficient to materially raise growth potential beyond 2%,” he said. Wohlmann added that while friction within the Government of…

Gold prices have continued their record-breaking rally, driven by sustained buying from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), even as South Africa’s domestic gold output continues to shrink under rising production costs and regulatory pressures. Data from StatsSA on Tuesday showed SA’s gold production slumping by 3.6% year-on-year in August, marking the second consecutive monthly decline following a 0.4% drop in the previous month. However, gold prices have rallied to levels around $4 141 per ounce despite a stronger dollar amid a looming trade war with China, a government shutdown in the US and global economic growth uncertainty. John Meyer, an analyst with UK-based advisory firm SP Angel, said on Tuesday that gold prices have “pressed higher again, climbing past record highs on sustained buying from ETFs and central bank”…

IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook shows that growth is expected to hold at 1.2% in 2026 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly upgraded South Africa’s economy by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1% in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 1% projected in April, and up slightly from 0.5% in 2024. The IMF's October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday showed that growth is also expected to hold at 1.2% in 2026, signaling a slow and uneven recovery as global and domestic constraints weigh on output. The IMF’s forecast underscored the country’s fragile momentum within a volatile international environment marked by rising trade barriers, weaker global demand, and tightening fiscal positions across developing economies. While power supply stability improved following reforms at Eskom and new renewable…

South Africa’s business confidence continued to improve in September, boosted by stronger financial market performance, rising commodity prices, and higher export volumes, according to the latest South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) Business Confidence Index (BCI) released on Tuesday. The BCI climbed 1.1 points month-on-month and 10.9 points year-on-year to reach 121.1 in September 2025, reflecting a notable rebound in sentiment after a dip earlier this year. SACCI said the recovery followed a sharp decline in confidence from 125.8 in February to 113.2 in June, which has since been “partly reclaimed” through steady improvements in August (120.0) and September (121.1). “In the short term, the broad financial climate supported positive business sentiment, while real economic activity was fairly stable but with negative elements,” Sacci said. “Over the medium…

market export drive amid rising protectionism Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Zuko Godlimpi, has unveiled a new export diversification approach — dubbed the Butterfly Strategy — positioning South Africa to spread its trade wings across multiple global markets amid rising protectionism and shifting economic power. Speaking at the South African Export Symposium and Expo on Tuesday, Godlimpi said the strategy was designed to help the country move beyond its overreliance on a handful of traditional markets and commodities, creating a more balanced, resilient export base. "Our export basket remains too concentrated on a handful of markets and too dependent on raw materials rather than value-added products," Godlimpi said. "Like a butterfly that pollinates multiple flowers, South Africa must establish trade flows across every continent. Our economic resilience depends…

South Africa is navigating an energy challenge characterised by intermittent load reduction/shedding, ageing infrastructure and limited generation capacity. The country also faces a transmission backlog that affects the seamless integration of renewable energy sources. Addressing these issues is essential for fostering economic growth and enhancing investor confidence. Although new renewable generation capacity is being developed, the current transmission infrastructure may not fully support the connection of these sources to the national grid or adequately deliver power to areas of high demand. As such, limitations within the transmission grid present an important consideration in efforts to expand generation capacity. This is where the Independent Transmission Projects (ITPs) become essential, unlocking private sector investment to accelerate the expansion of South Africa’s transmission network and enable the integration of new generation sources. The…