In 1994, South Africa emerged from apartheid with global goodwill, democratic legitimacy and the promise of shared prosperity. Yet three decades later, that promise remains unfulfilled. With an overall unemployment rate of 31.9% and youth unemployment at 59.6% (Q4 2024, Stats SA), the country faces a structural crisis that is eroding its economic base and social cohesion.
This is not an isolated issue but a national reckoning that follows a pattern common to both collapsing companies and declining states. Jim Collins, in How the Mighty Fall, outlines five stages of institutional decline: hubris, undisciplined growth, denial of risk, superficial solutions and eventual stagnation. These stages offer a sobering framework for understanding South Africa’s current position.
“Denial is the most dangerous stage of decline,” Collins warns, “because it blinds leaders to…