Over the next year, we expect slower global economic growth to dominate the agenda. A recessionary-like environment can be expected across developed markets (DMs), with more divergence in economic activity for emerging markets (EMs).
Our base case is for softer and more volatile commodity prices. A global shift in monetary policy, to either pause or slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in 2023, will largely remain a function of inflation, which is broadly expected to ease – especially later in the year.
We caution that the effects of a global slowdown, combined with a higher interest rate environment, will continue to weigh on financial markets.
As such, investors are probably eyeing 2023 with trepidation after a rather painful 2022 for bonds and stocks alike.
A bumpy ride appears…