The trade policies and rhetoric under Donald Trump’s administration have significantly influenced global markets, including South African equities. In November, Trump announced aggressive tariffs targeting China, Mexico, Canada, and other nations.
A US weighted average tariff of up to 18% spurred fear-driven markets, with US Treasury yields increasing aggressively as investors priced in heightened economic uncertainty. This raised concerns about a potential global trade war, a scenario that could halt global trade and significantly impact economies.
While Trump’s rhetoric has been aggressive, it is unlikely that he will implement such extreme tariffs. His advisory committee includes sound economic advisers, and his first term demonstrated strategic targeting with focus more towards intermediate goods, protecting consumers.
Trump is likely to adopt a more measured approach, as evidenced by his comments during an…