Golf is unpredictable. Take, for example, the mysterious case of Ted Potter Jr. In February, the journeyman outgunned Dustin Johnson and Jason Day to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Who’d have predicted that outcome, especially when his tournament results immediately preceding the showdown in Monterey were T73, cut, cut, T13, cut, cut, cut? The victory earned Potter an invite to the Masters, but, with good reason, he isn’t a bookies’ favorite to win.
Nevertheless, it’s fun—and, admittedly, something of a high-wire act—to predict who will don the green jacket this year.
For me, three factors are key: form (the current state of a player’s game), fit (the way a player’s game pairs up with a specific course) and intangibles. To measure form and fit, predictive analytics models can be…