Innholdsfortegnelse for June/July 2023 i Baseball America

Among the Dodgers’ trio of Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and Landon Knack, who do you think is closest to the majors? And what kind of outcomes should we expect? Nick from San Carlos, Calif. My guess is Sheehan is the closest to the majors, but it’s going to depend how he progresses this summer. I think he’ll see some time in Triple-A before his callup. I think Sheehan is a possible midrotation starter, Knack a back-end starter and Hurt more of a shutdown reliever. Hurt for me is the wild card because he has made a ton of progress the last few seasons under the Dodgers’ development. —Geoff Pontes I could see the trio of Jackson Holliday, Dylan Crews and Jackson Chourio heading up the Top 100 Prospects next spring.…

No college teammates have ever been drafted with the first two picks in a draft. That could change this year. The Louisiana State duo of outfielder Dylan Crews and righthander Paul Skenes rank as the top two prospects in this draft class. But this being baseball, they are not locks to be drafted by the Pirates and Nationals with the top two picks. Here we examine nine duos—and one trio—of college teammates with the highest draft position. Players marked with an asterisk were the Baseball America College Player of the Year that season. Baseball-Reference WAR totals are rounded to the nearest integer. 1978 ARIZONA STATE ■ No. 1 Bob Horner, 3B, Braves (22 WAR) ■ No. 3 Hubie Brooks, SS, Mets (13 WAR) Horner and Brooks guided the Sun Devils…

BEST HITTER High School 1. Kevin McGonigle (#24) 2. Max Clark (#5) 3. Walker Jenkins (#4) 4. Ralphy Velazquez (#27) 5. Colt Emerson (#26) College 1. Dylan Crews (#1) 2. Jacob Wilson (#6) 3. Nolan Schanuel (#29) 4. Wyatt Langford (#3) 5. Brayden Taylor (#16) BEST POWER High School 1. Walker Jenkins (#4) 2. Bryce Eldridge (#22) 3. Aidan Miller (#20) 4. Ralphy Velazquez (#27) 5. Daniel Cuvet (#169) College 1. Brock Wilken (#23) 2. Wyatt Langford (#3) 3. Dylan Crews (#1) 4. Jake Gelof (#41) 5. Kemp Alderman (#103) BEST SPEED High School 1. Kendall George (#115) 2. Dillon Head (#34) 3. Adrian Santana (#43) 4. Max Clark (#5) 5. Jonny Farmelo (#45) College 1. Enrique Bradfield Jr. (#17) 2. Mac Horvath (#91) 3. Homer Bush Jr. (#83) 4.…

Late-round draft successes tend to be random in nature, but there is a notable concentration of value in one particular round. The 17th round of the draft has produced the 11th highest WAR total among all rounds—excluding supplemental rounds from consideration—and has more than a 100-WAR edge on the 10th round. Players such as Kenny Lofton (1988), Orel Hershiser (1979) and Brian Giles (1989) were 17th-round picks. So too were longtime regulars Kent Hrbek (1978), Bud Black (1979) and Jermaine Dye (1993). Even in the past quarter century, the 17th round has been fruitful relative to other late rounds. Mike Napoli (2000), Russell Martin (2002), Ian Kinsler (2003), Lorenzo Cain (2004), Josh Reddick (2006) and David Robertson (2006) were all products of that round.…

KYLE TEEL, C VIRGINIA Teel was the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year after hitting .418/.484/.673 with 13 home runs. He started every game the last two seasons. In addition to his offensive prowess, the junior is one of the best defensive catchers in the country and managed the Virginia pitching staff to a 3.77 ERA that ranked fourth in the nation. TOMMY WHITE, 3B LOUISIANA STATE White excelled this spring after transferring to LSU and is one of three Tigers on the first team. Hitting behind Dylan Crews, White batted .377/.439/.750 with 22 home runs and 97 RBIs. The sophomore stands out for his feel and power at the plate, and he’s lived up to lofty expectations after his 27-homer Freshman of the Year season for North Carolina…

Holliday Showcases Advanced Approach The Orioles may not be picking at the top of the draft again for a long time. Much of that has to do with the resurgence of the major league team since 2019 No. 1 overall pick Adley Rutschman’s debut last May. At this rate, it won’t be long until last year’s No. 1 pick—Jackson Holliday out of Stillwater (Okla.) High—is elevating the talent level in Baltimore, too. Holliday was off to the minors’ best start through the first 10 weeks of the season, with a 1.056 OPS and as many walks (47) as strikeouts (47) between Low-A Delmarva and High-A Aberdeen. Orioles farm director Matt Blood said the success is a reflection of the 19-year-old shortstop’s“overall polish.” “He’s just a very advanced player and person…

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Traditionally, major league teams have earned draft picks by three means: (1) Order of finish the preceding season (2) As compensation for the departure of qualified free agents (3) As part of a competitive balance system, introduced for the 2012 draft, that distributes picks after the first and second rounds to clubs with the lowest revenues and in the smallest markets. The 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement introduced three new wrinkles to draft order: (1) A draft lottery aimed at disincentivizing teams from tanking for the No. 1 overall pick (2) An alteration to draft order—and thus bonus pools—determined by postseason progress, not simply reverse order of standings (3) The potential for Prospect Promotion Incentive draft picks after the first round The lottery immediately made an impact on the 2023 draft…

A significant factor in why the 2023 draft class is so favorably reviewed by scouts is the talent of the high school prospects. With any analysis of a draft’s talent level, it starts at the top. While it might not seem like it, given the amount of attention paid to the Louisiana State duo of Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, there are a pair of No. 1 overall-caliber prep players in this class. Both Walker Jenkins and Max Clark stack up well with top-ranked prepsters in recent years—including Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday and Termarr Johnson in 2022 or Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer in 2021—and in another draft class, both outfielders would have likely received more significant buzz as potential 1-1 picks. As it stands, the duo of Jenkins and…

Top 200 prospects only BEST FASTBALL High School 1. Travis Sykora (#35) 2. Alexander Clemmey (#48) 3. Adam Hachman (#75) 4. Noble Meyer (#9) 5. Thomas White (#14) College 1. Paul Skenes (#2) 2. Eriq Swan (#200) 3. Andrew Walters (#128)  4. Cade Kuehler (#38) 5. Ty Floyd (#67) BEST BREAKING BALL High School 1. Noble Meyer (#9) 2. Josh Knoth (#42) 3. Joey Volchko (#36) 4. Paul Wilson (#50) 5. Charlee Soto (#30) College 1. Paul Skenes (#2) 2. Hurston Waldrep (#18) 3. Juaron Watts-Brown (#37)  4. Chase Dollander (#7) 5. Hunter Owen (#74) BEST CHANGEUP High School 1. Charlee Soto (#30) 2. Thomas White (#14) 3. Landen Maroudis (#82) 4. Zander Mueth (#58) 5. Travis Sykora (#35) College 1. Hurston Waldrep (#18) 2. Rhett Lowder (#10) 3. Noah Hall (#193)…

The Astros drafted Division II outfielder J.D. Martinez out of Nova Southeastern in the 20th round in 2009. He hit the ground running in pro ball, reaching Double-A by the end of his first full season and the major leagues by the end of 2011. But in parts of three seasons with Houston, Martinez put up an 88 OPS+ that didn’t cut it as a left fielder. He completely reworked his swing after the 2013 season, but apparently not to the Astros’ satisfaction. Houston released Martinez during spring training 2014, which was a remarkable outcome for a team deep into a rebuild and coming off a 111-loss season. The Tigers signed Martinez two days later, and he was back in the majors—and on his way to stardom—after just 17 Triple-A…

TOP 200 DRAFT PROSPECTS Baseball America compiles its draft rankings through year-round conversations with scouts, front office officials and coaches. Our rankings are based on our assessments of players’ talent, not their signability or where we believe they will be drafted. All overview capsules written by Carlos Collazo. Scan this code to view the BA 500—which ranks the top 500 draft prospects—at BaseballAmerica.com.…

Baseball has had its share of famous high school prospects. Alex Rodriguez. Bryce Harper. Ken Griffey Jr. Those teenagers’ names were known nationally to fans before they signed their first pro contracts. Like that trio, Indiana high school outfielder Max Clark has a chance to be drafted first overall. And it seems like only a matter of time before the 18-year-old Franklin Community High product is a household name. Clark already has as much social media clout as any prep baseball prospect. He has 600,000-plus ritualistically checking their smartphone notifications across a handful of social media platforms, where his brand thrives. A simple Google search reveals that the hype for Clark is real. From a Wikipedia page of his own to a YouTube clip of him putting “on a show…

Bad Times Yield Good Times For Bliss Ryan Bliss wouldn’t wish his struggles from last season on anyone. But looking back, the 23-year-old second baseman is glad he went through them. If he hadn’t, he might not be having the sort of bounceback season with Double-A Amarillo he was enjoying this year. “It’s a blessing in disguise,” Bliss said. “I didn’t have the year I wanted to, but I was able to see what was wrong—and what could go wrong when my swing wasn’t where I needed it to be and able to make adjustments. “Sometimes you’ve got to take the bad times and try to find some good out of it.” Bliss, a 2021 second-round pick out of Auburn, hit just .214/.298/.343 at High-A Hillsboro last year. Through 49…

Each year, players from the previous year’s draft class begin to cement themselves as legitimate prospects who were perhaps undersold heading into the draft. Last season, players like Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, Ricky Tiedemann, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Justyn-Henry Malloy emerged early—and just kept getting better. Bibee, Miller and Tiedemann finished the year as Top 100 Prospects. These improvements in skills are often the product of professional instruction and coaching, strength gains or a combination of the two. This year, we focused on players drafted after the first round in 2022 who stood out early in the season to prime themselves as full-fledged breakout candidates. ROBBY SNELLING, LHP, PADRES Low-A Lake Elsinore Snelling earned rave reviews this spring in the California League. The Padres’ supplemental first-rounder out of a Reno high…

VIDA BLUE PRIMED A’s FOR SUCCESS IN OAKLAND On a team filled with stars, Vida Blue was truly a force of nature. It was Blue’s 1971 season that set the Athletics on their path to dominate baseball for the next five seasons. First, a 21-year-old Blue announced himself to the baseball world by going 24-8, 1.82 with 301 strikeouts 312 innings in 1971. It was the kind of season that is nearly impossible to match today. Blue led the American League in ERA, shutouts (eight) and strikeout rate (8.7 per nine innings), making him the overwhelming choice not only for the AL Cy Young Award but also for MVP. That makes Blue the answer to an obscure trivia question: Who was the last switch-hitter to win the AL MVP award?…

COMING FULL CIRCLE Chris Betts draws from his experience as a prospect to advise clients Chris Betts had put in the work. Now, the SoCal catcher was ready to see it pay dividends. Already committed to Tennessee, Betts headed into his senior year at Wilson High in Long Beach looking to build on an impressive prep career by improving his conditioning and physique. He was working with longtime big leaguer Kurt Suzuki on his skills behind the dish. Betts was a preseason first-team All-American in 2015 and had a shot to be drafted in the top 15 picks. He had Tommy John surgery that April, clouding his draft status. Betts was understandably worried. Fortunately for him, he had a calming presence in the form of his adviser and eventual agent,…

Jay Johnson’s first impression of both Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes was strikingly similar to how 28 big league teams will feel on draft day: admiration from afar with little to no chance of seeing them play for his team. Back when he was the head coach for Arizona, Johnson distinctly remembers how struck he was by the talent of both players. For Crews, the famous prep outfield prospect who was a mainstay with USA Baseball’s national teams and consistently regarded as one of the most talented players in his class, it was during the 15U USA Baseball roster trials. “When I saw him I was like, ‘Man, that is a real player,’” Johnson said. “You could see the talent, but he was so far advanced (in terms of) actually…

1 PIRATES Dylan Crews OF • Louisiana State The Pirates are probably still kicking the tires on a number of different options for the top pick. That shouldn’t be a surprise given how the organization has operated in the past, particularly in 2021 when it chose Henry Davis No. 1 overall and spread its bonus pool money around in later rounds. Some scouts think Florida’s Wyatt Langford is an equivalent talent to Crews, and he also has the Southeastern Conference production to back it up. A case can also be made for high school outfielders Walker Jenkins or Max Clark, who have plus MLB potential. Still, I don’t feel confident enough in any of those options to pull the trigger on a player not named Crews. He has the tools.…

Baseball America draft rankings attempt to capture industry consensus on the top draft talents for 2023. The list is compiled in consultation with major league scouts, front office executives, coaches and other professional evaluators. In most years, many college players move up boards with late-season and postseason performances in the late spring as BA goes to press with its Draft Preview That is not the case this year. As a group, the median ranking for high school draft prospects as a collective moved up 19 places between the January preseason ranking and the May update. The median rank of college players fell 10 places. That’s the result of both improvements from players ranked on our preseason list and the addition of several notable pop-up players from the high school class…

BEST DEFENSIVE CATCHER High School 1. Colin Barczi (#196) 2. Campbell Smithwick (#111) 3. Blake Mitchell (#15) 4. Riley Jackson (#185) 5. Ryder Helfrick (#124) College 1. Connor Burns (#162) 2. Luke Shliger (#89) 3. Kyle Teel (#11) 4. Calvin Harris (#155) 5. Michael Carico (#101) BEST DEFENSIVE INFIELDER High School 1. Dylan Cupp (#92) 2. Adrian Santana (#43) 3. Roch Cholowsky (#32) 4. Samuel Stafura (#39) 5. Roman Martin (#57) College 1. Maui Ahuna (#71) 2. Marcus Brown (#143) 3. Tre’ Morgan (#76) 4. Jacob Wilson (#6) 5. Christian Knapczyk (#90) BEST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER High School 1. Max Clark (#5) 2. Dillon Head (#34) 3. Kendall George (#115) 4. Grant Gray (#66) 5. Jonny Farmelo (#45) College 1. Enrique Bradfield Jr. (#17) 2. Ryan Lasko (#84) 3. Dylan Crews…

Scouts at the time viewed the 2000 draft class as weak. The 2000 first round produced one of the lower WAR totals among all drafts, despite Chase Utley, Adam Wainwright and Adrian Gonzalez being products of it. On the flip side, the 2000 draft has one of the higher WAR totals for players drafted after the 10th round. The key contributors to that total include these late-round hits:…

Paul Skenes didn’t want to leave the Air Force Academy a year ago. He liked being a part of the team, which had won the Mountain West Conference Tournament in 2022 and reached the Austin Regional final, and he had long wanted to serve in the military. But a combination of MLB’s draft rules and the Air Force’s service requirements led him to transfer so that he could more freely pursue a baseball career. That led him to Louisiana State, where he dominated the sport this season. Skenes, following his start in super regionals, was 12-2, 1.77 with 188 strikeouts and 18 walks in 107 innings. He led the nation in strikeouts and had more than any college pitcher since Trevor Bauer racked up 203 in 2011. Skenes’ sensational season…

BLAKE MITCHELL, C SINTON HS SINTON, TX Mitchell is a large, powerful catcher with plus raw power and double-plus arm strength behind the plate. He’d be a legitimate pitching prospect if he didn’t have so much upside as a catcher. He mitigates some contact questions with a sound batting eye. He has the tools to develop into an above-average defender. WALKER MARTIN, MI EATON HS EATON, CO Martin had one of the best seasons in the country, with a .633 average and 20 home runs. He’s old for the class, but he’s a standout athlete with power, strength and impressive balance and feel for the barrel with a smooth lefthanded swing. He has solid defensive actions and a chance to stick at shortstop as well. TRENT CARAWAY, CI JSERRA CATHOLIC…

For the third time in the past 30 years, home run rates are skyrocketing around college baseball. And for the third time in the past 30 years, it likely means that something is happening with the equipment. In 2023, teams are averaging 1.13 home runs per game, which will set the all-time NCAA record. Even if there is not one home run hit in Omaha, the all-time Division I record of 1.08 home runs per game, set in 1998 at the peak of the “drop 5” era of metal bats, will be smashed. That leads to the simplest of questions: Why? When the home run rate soared in the late 1990s, and again in the late 2000s, there were those who said it was because of improved training and player…

J.J. COOPER @JJCOOP36 Paul Skenes threw 124 pitches on his way to a complete-game win in Louisiana State’s regional opener. If you surveyed social media during the game, you might have thought LSU coach Jay Johnson and pitching coach Wes Johnson had taken a hacksaw to Skenes’ elbow sometime during the ninth inning. Skenes is universally viewed as the top pitching prospect in the 2023 draft. So what were Johnson and Johnson doing taking such a big risk by letting him work so deep in a game? No MLB pitcher had thrown 124 pitches in a game this year. And only Miles Mikolas did it last year. Case closed. The evidence is clear: LSU is playing with fire. MLB teams have learned to never let a pitcher throw so many…